The simulation of city development and changes in land use is a troublesome and data intense task. Additionally existing urban development models do not allow for easy integration of the results to urban drainage models. Especially for small cities the effort to use such software is not feasible. To circumvent these problems a new urban development model was developed. It is designed for a fast setup, low data need and swift integration with consecutive models.
Methods
Conventional planning and management practices undergo a paradigm shift towards approaches which integrated and coupled with urban development including the assessment of social changes. Deterministic planning guidelines and practices are fixed to a narrow band of scenarios being considered. But especially in times of rapid and certain changes a shift towards more flexible designs and the analysis of multiple options is imminent. By estimating population growth and taking into account spatial conditions it is possible to take all urban development possibilities into account generating several scenarios within the given boundaries. Connecting the newly developed areas to the drainage system leads to higher surface runoff and consequently higher runoff peaks in the network. The runoff peaks might lead to a higher risk in flooding and additionally to a decrease in storm water treatment, meaning the release of untreated contaminants to the receiving water.
Urban development cycle
Results
Starting from the 9 base scenarios (population and spatial) several variations of urban development results have been generated using the model built in Monte Carlo Markov Chain module in addition with infiltration scenarios for newly developed areas.
Urban development cycle